CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-14T15:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33434/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2/C3 and not yet observed in STEREO A due to a data gap. Associated with a powerful X4.5-class solar flare from AR3825 (S18E55) and subsequent strong eruption, characterized by intense brightening in SDO 131 and fast ejecta seen best in GOES 284 as well as a large, fast EUV wave associated with the eruption traversing back towards the northwest seen best in SDO 171/193 that covers approximately half the solar disk. The arrival of this CME is characterized by a significant increase in B_total from ~9nT to ~15nT, eventually reaching 20 nT by 2024-09-17T01:35Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind temperature, density, and velocity, which reached a peak sustained velocity of 560 km/s. By 2024-09-17T01:39Z, the magnetic field components begin to stabilize with time with steady -Bx and -Bz components dominate the signature until 2024-09-17T12:00Z. There is evidence of a clear flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T22:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T15:50Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 2040.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 1153.32 Acceleration: -3.41162 Duration in seconds: 173644.05 Duration in days: 2.0097691 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -3.41 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 560.9 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/09/2024 Time: 15:50 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 40.18 hour(s)
Difference: 6.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-09-15T06:38Z
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